# Baseline MAE Report

## Naive Baseline: District-Level Historical Mean

### Methodology
- **Training period**: 2022-12-01 to 2023-06-30
- **Validation period**: 2023-07-01 to 2024-12-30
- **Prediction**: District-level historical mean risk score
- **Risk score**: Weighted combination of outpatient (weight=1) and inpatient (weight=3) case counts, normalized by district mean

### Results

| Horizon | MAE |
|---------|-----|
| 1-day   | 0.2314 |
| 3-day   | 0.5424 |
| 7-day   | 0.6391 |

### Interpretation
- These MAE values represent the error of predicting the historical district mean
- Model must achieve MAE < 0.9x these values to beat the naive baseline
- 1-day horizon should have lowest MAE (most predictable)
- 7-day horizon should have highest MAE (least predictable)